We’re going into Week 3, college football is almost completely back into the swing, and with the Pac-12’s most recent vote to play a seven-game schedule starting Nov. 6, things are increasingly looking like we may have at least a few normal weeks later in the Fall. It’s certainly encouraging, at least, that previously-final decisions to postpone sports have been shown to be, well, not that final. Peer pressure works to some extent on everyone, even conference board members. 

In any case, let’s appreciate the football that has happened so far! It truly is a gift to have some diversions in a world that have been frustratingly empty of them, and as someone who believes that the opportunity for genuine leisure is crucial to having a worthwhile life, I’m glad to see it slowly return. 

There is a caveat to the conferences who are returning late: the scheduling has become increasingly complicated because different conferences are playing different numbers of games. The Pac-12 is playing seven games, the Big Ten is playing eight, the SEC and Big 12 are playing 10, and ACC is playing 11. And this isn’t counting conference championships. Obviously, this creates some strange timing, and comparison is going to be a problem.

The real question is how the college football playoff committee will reward a team that has only played seven games. If, say, an Oregon team that has gone undefeated against a Pac-12-exclusive seven-game schedule is put up against a 10-win Notre Dame team that has only lost to Clemson, who will the committee prefer? My money is on the team that played more games and beat Clemson. Even a loss to North Carolina, currently ranked eleventh, wouldn’t seem to be catastrophic to the Irish’s chances because of the extra games. 

The Pac-12s reputation could end up hurting them more here than ever before, too. A seven-win undefeated Ohio State team would almost definitely be in, it seems far dicier for a conference champion Utah. Things get even more interesting if a non-Ohio State team ends up winning the conference: they will have two fewer games than whoever will have won the Big 12 or SEC, and three less than whoever wins the ACC. Will beating Ohio State be enough to convince the committee they should get in over a Georgia team whose only loss is to Alabama?

In other words, like everything else this year, college football is setting up to be even more chaotic than usual. Those with heart conditions may want to refrain from watching. 

Let’s move on with the Fumble. 

If the Season Ended Today, the Playoff Teams Would Be...

1. Clemson

2. Alabama

3. Notre Dame

4. Oklahoma

Notre Dame replaces Georgia if the true decision has to be made, as the Irish have commenced their season by beating Duke by a solid margin and dominating South Florida. Other than that, though, nothing has changed. The SEC begins to play this week, and Alabama should be fine for a while, at least.

Your New Favorite Player

Miami fans might suggest new transfer D’Eriq King, a former three-star quarterback who just came from Houston. King’s debut against Alabama-Birmingham was solid if not spectacular, but he passed for over 300 yards along with three touchdowns to lead the Hurricanes over Louisville. The performance turned a lot of heads (including our own TJ Mathewson), and the hype is building for the ACC’s new star. Wins over ranked opponents are at a premium in a shortened season, and this one could be crucial for Miami as the season goes on. 

The Top of the G5 Rests With…

UCF. Cincinnati and UCF are so incredibly close right now, but UCF played very well against a Georgia Tech squad that has already beaten Florida State in its first game, winning 49-21 and showing that Dillon Gabriel’s solid freshman season was no fluke. If Cincinnati beats the Army next week, they’ll likely be right back here. But for a week, it’s UCF.

Game of the Week

#14 Cincinnati vs. #22 Army

Two games in, Army is undefeated after victories over Middle-Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe. This will be a very good gauge of how real the Black Knights are: a victory could signal that there is a new G5 contender to deal with. On the other hand, Cincinnati could establish their not-really-doubted-legitimacy very quickly with a victory over Army after an easy warmup against Austin Peay.

Writer

-By: Alex Spieldenner

It should be official by the time these picks are posted, but the PAC-12 will have announced that they are returning to play on either 10/31 or 11/7. By the time November rolls around, all of the Power Five Conferences should be back in the swing of things and I would imagine that the College Football Playoff Committee will be weighing its options when looking at the staggeringly different resumes of each P5 team.

It is really going to be fascinating. A nine-game conference schedule plus one non-conference game the Big 12, a ten-game conference schedule plus another non-conference game for the ACC, a ten-game conference-only schedule for the SEC, an eight-game conference-only schedule for the Big Ten. The Pac-12 hasn’t announced anything official regarding the schedule, but a six or seven game schedule would make the most sense so the conference can compete in bowl season and the CFP.

How will the Committee compare a 9-2 SEC/Big 12 or 10-2 ACC team (factoring in a conference title game) versus a 9-0 Big Ten team or 7-0 Pac-12 team? Are teams going to get punished for playing fewer games? There are going to be some really fun arguments once December rolls around. However, it’s not December yet so I get to choose who goes in. Here we go:

No. 1: Clemson Tigers (2-0) (LW: 49-0 vs The Citadel)

The best QB in the country. The best team in the country. Playing the Citadel. Being the only team in these rankings to play this week. Sounds like a pretty good recipe for staying in the No. 1 spot for our CFP picks. Trevor Lawrence barely had to open his eyes to average nearly 19 Y/A on his throws (8/9 168 yards and three touchdowns). I mean, just look at some of these throws, ridiculous stuff. The defense only allowed 162 yards. Not much more needs to be said here, Virginia awaits on October 3rd. 

No. 2: Oklahoma Sooners (1-0) (LW: N/A)

Oklahoma didn’t play this week, and neither did any of the teams below them, so no change in this spot. The Sooners are getting ready to host Kansas State on Saturday as a big favorite, the Wildcats topping the Sooners in Manhattan last season. It is reported that both teams are struggling with COVID-19 cases and are right on the line of whether or not to play on Saturday. If they do, we’ll get Spencer Rattler against an actual FBS opponent. I can’t imagine there’ll be much dropoff, but we shall see. Oklahoma usually throws up a stinker sometime during their Big 12 slate. I don’t think this will be it though.

No. 3: Alabama Crimson Tide (0-0) (LW: N/A)

SEC finally gets underway this weekend (queue the CBS music!) and Alabama will be on the road to face Missouri for the fourth time since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012. Like Oklahoma, Alabama is a heavy favorite and should easily roll in their opener. We should see a mix of Mac Jones and Bryce Young, we know Nick Saban isn’t hesitant to play his freshman if he knows they are his best chance to win. If the Crimson Tide look really good on Saturday, I might have to move them above Oklahoma, given how the Sooners fared against Saban two seasons ago.

No. 4: Florida Gators (0-0) (LW: N/A)

Ok Kyle Trask, if I’m going to buy into this Gators hype for the CFP, it starts with you tearing up Ole Miss on Saturday. The Gators are two-touchdown favorites over the now-Lane Kiffin-led Rebels, who won two conference titles in his three seasons at FAU, and is expected to bring some spice to Oxford. I don’t think it starts this weekend. If Trask has a good weekend, I would expect star TE Kyle Pitts to have a good one also. This fourth spot in the playoff should be a dandy to look at all season, especially as we get deeper into the season. For now, it remains in Gainesville.

Next few:

Notre Dame

Georgia

LSU

Writer

-By: TJ Mathewson

Welcome to the Fumble, your weekly guide to the college football season. After what has seemed like four years and seven season-cancellation predictions, we’re finally watching that wonderful, beautiful, heartbreaking, stress-inducing, incredible game of football. Of course, this isn’t your usual season: the Pac-12 is not playing this Fall, the Big 10 has only in the last few days decided to start in October (thus justifying my decision to wait until the last minute to write this column...procrastination for the win), and everybody will be playing with maybe a quarter of their stadium capacity. For the entire season, I’ll be here at ITH trying to entertain you, the reader, and providing cutting-edge analysis. Or at least one of those things. You can decide which one I’m talking about. 

If you are a long-time reader at Inside the Hashes, you might remember a column I wrote last year called “Looking at the CFB Top 10.” In addition to discarding that rather unwieldy title, the format has changed somewhat. I won’t be analyzing every member of the top 10; instead, I’ll be looking at a variety of things that will hopefully create a more creative feature. But this will likely not be static; there is a real possibility the column will change its bits each week. Who knows? I just write here. 

Anyways...let’s get started. 

If the Playoff Was Today, the Four Teams Would Be…

1. Clemson

2. Alabama

3. Oklahoma

4. Georgia

You know, usually I hate predictions like this, because I don’t believe that the AP OR the Playoff committee ranks teams the same way during the season and in the final rankings. So I probably won’t do this based on the prevalent rankings as the season goes on. But as it stands now, this actually aligns quite well with the reality of the situation. The three conference leaders and Alabama’s little brother are all in right now, with an eye on Florida and Texas. When the Big Ten starts, expect Ohio State here too. 

I’m Looking For a New Favorite Player...Any Suggestions?

Could I interest you in Oklahoma’s QB Spencer Rattler? The ex-five-star prospect and redshirt freshman was Sports 24/7’s top recruit out of Arizona in 2019, and is ready to be the Sooner’s next big quarterback. He definitely played well in his first start, passing for almost 300 yards and four touchdowns. It’s even more impressive when you realize it came against…Missouri State. Okay, so the big opponents have yet to come, but he looked good against an outmatched opponent and his potential is massive. You could do far worse for a new favorite player. 

A New Old Heisman Contender?

Look, I know. Sam Ehlinger has been playing for several years, and for all of his name recognition and “Texas is back” claims he’s really only ever been good, not great. And it was only UTEP. But in a weird season, why couldn’t a guy who just started the season with 426 yards and 5 touchdowns have a shot? I’m not saying it will happen. I’m not even saying he’d be my pick this week. But he certainly didn’t hurt himself. 

The Top G5 Team Right Now

Look, with the Big Ten coming back, it seems less and less likely that any Group of 5 team will make the playoff. But there’s still a chance, and I’d pick Cincinnati if I had to pick one team to do it. Though not exactly high on flashy talent, coach Luke Fickell has been building an impressive program that would be worrisome for most ranked teams. If they can gain some momentum, they could be dangerous. 

And that will be all for the first edition of the Fumble, folks. I’ll see you next week, everybody play nice. 

Statistics courtesy of sports-reference.com

Writer

-By: Alex Spieldenner